Bitcoin panic selling may be fading, but spot demand still needs confirmation

What changed in the BTC setup

The reported change is that Bitcoin’s marginal sell pressure appears to be drying up after months of panic selling. Analysts cited by BlockBeats framed the market as one where earlier weak-hand selling may have already been largely cleared.

Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere pointed to Bitcoin holding above $62,000 despite rising U.S.-Iran conflict risk and tension around the Strait of Hormuz. In that reading, resilience during negative macro headlines suggests forced or emotional selling has become less dominant.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flow data also shifted. According to the brief, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows last week, ending eight straight weeks of net outflows. That does not prove sustained demand, but it does reduce the case for uninterrupted institutional selling pressure.

Why analysts see selling exhaustion

The clearest evidence in the brief is the drop in reported spot market net selling. Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva cited Glassnode data showing that average daily Bitcoin spot net selling was about 2,000 BTC in June and fell to about 53 BTC in July.

That gap matters because markets often turn less fragile when the next incremental seller becomes harder to find. If fewer holders are selling into the spot market, the same amount of new demand can have a larger price effect.

Still, exhaustion is not the same as fresh accumulation. A market can stop falling because sellers are tired, then trade sideways if buyers remain cautious. For BTC traders, the distinction matters more than the headline.

What is not confirmed yet

The brief explicitly warns that Bitcoin’s rebound is mainly being driven by derivatives markets, while spot buying remains relatively weak. That is the main risk behind the optimistic interpretation.

A derivatives-led move can extend quickly, but it can also become vulnerable to positioning resets. If leveraged traders drive price before spot demand follows, volatility can rise when funding, open interest, or macro news turns against the trade.

The practical conclusion is simple: the evidence supports weaker sell pressure, but it does not confirm durable spot-led demand. Traders should avoid treating the analyst view as a guarantee of trend continuation.

Near-term catalysts to monitor

The brief identifies two near-term catalysts: U.S. June CPI data and congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Both can affect risk appetite, dollar liquidity expectations, and positioning across crypto markets.

If inflation data or testimony changes expectations around monetary policy, BTC can react even when crypto-native selling pressure is fading. That is why market structure and macro timing should be read together.

For a Bybit BTC user, this means checking calendar risk before opening or adding leverage. A setup that looks technically clean can still become unstable around scheduled macro events.

Practical checks before trading BTC on Bybit

First, separate spot confirmation from derivatives momentum. If BTC is rising while spot demand remains weak, use smaller risk and avoid assuming that every breakout has durable backing.

Second, watch whether ETF flow improvement continues beyond one week. A single $197.4 million net inflow is constructive in this brief, but sustained inflows would carry more decision value than one data point.

Third, compare price resilience with actual volume and liquidity. Holding above $62,000 during stress is notable, but thinner liquidity can exaggerate both rallies and pullbacks.

Fourth, define invalidation before entry. If the trade depends on seller exhaustion, the risk plan should account for renewed spot selling, macro surprise, or a derivatives unwind.

Using the Bybit context responsibly

Bybit can be relevant for users who want to monitor BTC markets, compare spot and derivatives behavior, and act only after their risk rules are clear. The market signal described here is decision support, not a trading instruction.

If you choose to explore Bybit, use the referral code 7nfg8123 through the provided partner link. Treat any signup or trading decision separately from the analyst view: check fees, product availability, margin rules, and local eligibility before using any exchange product.

Nothing in this guide is financial advice. BTC can move sharply in either direction, and the brief itself states that spot demand remains relatively weak even as sell pressure appears to be fading.